The 2026 World Cup features 48 teams across 12 groups. Photo: Ank Kumar / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
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The story so far. The 2026 World Cup draw on 5 December 2025 split 48 teams into twelve groups of four. The format is new and it changes everything: the top two from each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed sides — 32 teams into the knockouts. Finishing third is no longer fatal, which quietly rewrites the maths of every group. This is our group-by-group verdict: who goes through, who springs the surprise, and the one match in each group that decides it. Opinion, not a results table.
Twelve groups, one of them a genuine group of death, several with a Cinderella debutant, and a third-place safety net that will keep more teams alive deeper into the tournament than any World Cup before it. Below we run through all twelve — Groups A to L — with a call on the two qualifiers, the dark horse worth a bet, and the fixture that will settle it. For the full tournament picture, start with our complete World Cup 2026 guide; for where to watch every match, see the country-by-country broadcast guide.
Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czech Republic
Co-hosts Mexico open the tournament and should top a kind group, but “should” is carrying weight — El Tri’s form under pressure has been jittery and the Estadio Azteca expectation is a burden as much as a boost. South Korea, organised and tournament-hardened with Son Heung-min driving them, are the side I trust most to take second. The Czech Republic arrived via the UEFA play-offs and are awkward rather than dangerous; South Africa’s pace could nick a result but not a place. Dark horse: South Korea to finish above the host. Key match: Mexico v South Korea — likely decides who tops the group and avoids a heavyweight in the last 32. Mexico’s home crowd, much like the city itself, is wrestling with the tournament’s human cost on host cities.
Group B: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland
Switzerland are the class act here — consistent, defensively sound, perennial knockout regulars — and should win the group without alarm. The intrigue is second. Co-hosts Canada have the talent (Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David) and the crowd to take it, but they blow hot and cold, and Bosnia and Herzegovina arrived on play-off momentum and will not be intimidated. Qatar look out of their depth against this company. Dark horse: Bosnia to gatecrash the top two at Canada’s expense. Key match: Canada v Bosnia — a straight shoot-out for the runners-up spot, and the night Canada’s home World Cup is made or unravelled.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
Don’t be fooled by the seedings — this is the most intriguing group in the draw. Brazil under Carlo Ancelotti are favourites but a work in progress, as our look at Brazil’s squad storylines sets out. Morocco, semi-finalists in 2022 and still rising, are good enough to top the group outright and would back themselves to. Scotland, back at a World Cup, will be ferocious; Haiti’s return is a story in itself. Dark horse: Morocco to win Group C. Key match: Brazil v Morocco — quite possibly a preview of a deep knockout tie, and the game that decides first place.
Group D: United States, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye
Co-hosts USA carry the weight of the tournament’s centre of gravity and should advance, but Türkiye are the live threat — Arda Güler’s generation is fearless and technically superior to anyone else here. Australia, as ever, are harder to beat than to admire; our Socceroos squad analysis explains why their durability travels. Paraguay are cussedly defensive and will frustrate. Dark horse: Türkiye to top the group ahead of the host. Key match: USA v Türkiye — the result reshapes the entire bracket on the hosts’ side of the draw.
Group E: Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador
This is not the free pass Germany’s name suggests. Ecuador are young, athletic and rising fast — a genuine candidate to top the group — while Ivory Coast, African champions in 2024, have the firepower to make Germany’s rebuild look exposed. And then there is Curaçao: population roughly 150,000, the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup, a story that needs no embellishment. Dark horse: Ecuador to win Group E. Key match: Germany v Ecuador — if Germany slip here, the group cracks wide open and a giant could be sweating on third place.
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
The Netherlands have the squad to win the group, but Japan are the best side Asia has sent to a World Cup and proved in 2022 they beat European heavyweights — they are no dark horse, they are co-favourites here. Sweden, through the play-offs with a frightening front line, are dangerous; Tunisia are organised and stubborn. Dark horse: Sweden to pip a fancied name to second. Key match: Netherlands v Japan — for first place, and for the right to dodge a Group of Death runner-up in the next round.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
The most open “big name” group in the tournament. Belgium’s golden generation is fading and beatable; Egypt, with Mohamed Salah chasing a last great World Cup, could realistically top it. Iran are exactly what they always are — physical, organised and a miserable night for anyone who underrates them, as our Iran team guide lays out. New Zealand, half of football’s great underdog pairing in our underdogs feature, will sell every blade of grass. Dark horse: Iran to advance at Belgium’s expense. Key match: Belgium v Egypt — the loser may find themselves relying on the third-place lottery.
Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay
Spain, European champions and playing the most coherent football of any contender, are the closest thing to a lock to top a group anywhere in the draw. Uruguay under Marcelo Bielsa are too good and too nasty to miss out on second. The romance is Cape Verde — debutants from a nation of half a million, and, as our underdogs feature argues, capable of taking a scalp that echoes. Saudi Arabia will need their 2022-against-Argentina lightning to strike twice. Dark horse: Cape Verde to claim a result the whole tournament remembers. Key match: Spain v Uruguay — first place, and a measuring stick for both as contenders.
Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway
Here is your group of death. France are loaded and rightly favoured, but Senegal are an African superpower, and Norway arrive with Erling Haaland at a first World Cup since 1998 and the means to drag themselves through on goals alone. One of those three misses out — that is the brutal arithmetic. Iraq, back on this stage after a 40-year wait, are the sentimental pick to spoil somebody’s party. Dark horse: Norway to reach the knockouts at a fancied name’s expense. Key match: Senegal v Norway — quite possibly the single most consequential group-stage fixture in the entire draw.
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
The holders should stroll. Argentina, with Lionel Messi widely expected to be bowing out, have the quality and the aura to win this comfortably. Behind them, Austria’s well-drilled, in-form side is the most reliable bet for second, with Algeria the talented but volatile wildcard who could finish anywhere. Jordan’s presence is pure romance — a first World Cup for a nation that waited generations. Dark horse: Algeria to derail Austria if their mood holds. Key match: Austria v Algeria — a near-eliminator for the runners-up place beneath Argentina.
Group K: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia
Two strong sides, two debutants-in-spirit, and a real fight for first. Portugal have the deepest talent pool in the group, but Colombia — James Rodríguez orchestrating, fresh off a powerful CONMEBOL campaign — are good enough to win it. DR Congo qualified through the play-offs after preparation disrupted by an Ebola outbreak that forced the squad into isolation, a backdrop no other side here can imagine. Uzbekistan reach a first World Cup full of belief. Dark horse: Colombia to top the group. Key match: Portugal v Colombia — for first place and the kinder knockout route.
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
England, now under Thomas Tuchel and under the usual suffocating expectation we unpacked in our squad analysis, should top the group — but Croatia have made a habit of embarrassing tournaments that write them off too early. Luka Modrić’s last World Cup will be all guile and game-management; aged, yes, but lethal at reading a knockout. Ghana’s Black Stars are rebuilding with pace to burn, and Panama are a genuinely awkward CONCACAF out. Dark horse: Ghana to ambush one of the big two. Key match: England v Croatia — for seeding, for pride, and to see whether Croatia’s age finally tells.
What the new third-place rule changes
With 32 of 48 teams reaching the knockouts, the group stage is more forgiving than ever — a single defeat rarely ends a campaign, and the eight best third-placed sides will include teams who lost a game they should have won. That sounds like it lowers the jeopardy. In practice it sharpens it: managers can no longer bank on a comfortable opener, because goal difference between third-placed teams across twelve groups will be decided by margins, not just results. Expect fewer dead rubbers, more sides chasing a third and fourth goal in games that used to drift, and a final round of group fixtures where half the tournament is still alive and doing maths.
For squad-by-squad depth, the full schedule, host-city travel and where to watch every match, see our complete 2026 World Cup guide.
