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There is a particular kind of World Cup optimism that arrives every four years, gets dressed up nicely, walks to the stadium, and is then quietly escorted off the premises by Brazil or Germany. The 2026 edition has, so far, done a reasonable job of sustaining the illusion a little longer than usual. Two last-32 fixtures, in particular, have done most of the work: Japan against Brazil, and Morocco against the Netherlands.
Whether either tie produces the result that would genuinely shift the axis of international football remains to be seen. But the fact that both matchups feel genuinely open, rather than merely polite, is worth examining properly.
The Numbers That Refuse to Change
The starting point, as Jonathan Wilson notes in the Guardian, is a statistic that should embarrass anyone who has ever used the phrase “football is evolving.” Since Argentina lifted the trophy in 1978, every single World Cup winner has come from western Europe or South America. Every one. That is eleven consecutive tournaments in which the game’s supposed global expansion has produced precisely zero winners from outside those two regions.
The two exceptions to the broader pattern, France in 1998 and Spain in 2010, were not really exceptions at all. Both nations had industrialised youth development to a degree that no other confederation has yet matched, and both drew heavily on domestic league structures that attract and develop talent at a scale most national associations can only observe from a distance.
The 48-team format, introduced for this tournament, was sold partly on the premise of greater inclusivity. What it has actually done, at least in the group stage, is give more nations a chance to lose respectably. Whether the knockout rounds tell a different story is the question Japan and Morocco are now being asked to answer.
Japan: The Most Coherent Non-European Project in World Football
Japan’s route to the last 32 has been characterised by something that is rarer than it sounds at a World Cup: tactical consistency. Hajime Moriyasu has operated within a recognisable 4-3-3 shape that compresses into a 4-5-1 defensive block, with the wide forwards doing significant pressing work from the front. Their xG numbers across the group stage suggest a team that creates chances in controlled bursts rather than through sustained dominance, which is precisely the profile you want if you are planning to frustrate Brazil for ninety minutes.
Brazil, for their part, have not looked entirely convincing. Their attacking output has been fine, but there have been moments of defensive vulnerability, particularly against teams willing to press high and commit bodies forward. Japan will have noted those moments. You can be certain their analysts have.
The historical context matters here. Japan reached the quarter-finals at Qatar 2022, defeating both Germany and Spain in the group stage. Those results were not flukes, even if the manner of them, deep defensive blocks and rapid transitions, suggested a team acutely aware of its own limitations. The question for 2026 is whether Moriyasu’s side have added a second gear, something that allows them to threaten once they have absorbed pressure, rather than relying entirely on the counter.
Morocco: Proof of Concept, Awaiting the Final Chapter
Morocco’s semi-final run in Qatar was the most significant result for African football in the tournament’s history, and it arrived with a tactical clarity that made it impossible to dismiss as fortune. Walid Regragui built a side around defensive organisation, set-piece threat, and the ability to transition at pace through wide areas. The template has not changed dramatically for 2026, though the squad has matured around it.
The Netherlands present a different kind of problem to the European sides Morocco navigated in Qatar. Ronald Koeman’s team have been functional rather than spectacular, which is perhaps the most dangerous version of the Dutch. A Netherlands side playing within itself, conserving energy, and waiting for opponents to overcommit is considerably more difficult to beat than one attempting to dominate possession from the first whistle.
Morocco’s strength is that they do not need to dominate possession to win. Their defensive shape under Regragui has consistently been among the most organised at this tournament, and their ability to absorb pressure without conceding shooting lanes is a genuine tactical asset. The xG against figures from their group games reflect a team that defends the penalty area with unusual discipline.
As Wilson’s piece in the Guardian frames it, both ties offer hope of a winner from outside the traditional powers. That framing is correct, though hope and probability are not the same thing, and it would be dishonest to pretend otherwise.
The Norway Cautionary Tale and What It Tells Us About Rotation
Elsewhere in the tournament, a different kind of story has been playing out. BBC Sport reported that Norway left Erling Haaland out of their final group game against France, making ten changes in total, and lost heavily. The debate about whether that was a sensible rotation or a misjudgement is worth having, but the more relevant point for the broader tournament picture is what it illustrates about the gap between nations with squad depth and those without.
Norway could afford to rest Haaland because they had already qualified. France, by contrast, fielded a strong side and punished them. The result is a reminder that the 48-team format’s generosity in the group stage does not extend to the knockout rounds, where the margin for error collapses entirely. Japan and Morocco will need every player available and performing. There is no rotation strategy that makes sense from here.
The Haaland-Mbappé matchup, referenced in the Guardian’s live coverage of day fifteen, generated considerable attention. Both players are capable of deciding knockout ties on their own. That neither of their nations has yet been tested to their absolute limit is, depending on your perspective, either reassuring or slightly ominous.
England, Panama, and the Luxury of Certainty
Meanwhile, BBC Sport’s interactive piece asking readers to pick their England XI against Panama captures a different kind of World Cup experience entirely: the mild anxiety of a nation that has already qualified and is now debating whether to start Marcus Rashford or preserve him for the knockout stage. Thomas Tuchel’s selection decisions against Panama will be scrutinised regardless of the result, which is simply the condition of managing England at a major tournament.
The contrast with Japan and Morocco is instructive. England’s group-stage concerns are largely about form and momentum. Japan and Morocco are carrying something heavier: the weight of what their results would mean for the broader geography of world football. That is not a burden England have ever had to carry in quite the same way.
For a fuller look at how the tournament bracket is shaping up across all 48 nations, the FootyGazette World Cup 2026 guide has the latest on every group and knockout path. The 48-team format explainer is also worth revisiting now the knockout rounds are clarifying what the expanded draw actually means in practice.
What Happens Next, and Why It Matters
The honest assessment is this: Brazil remain favourites against Japan, and the Netherlands are narrow favourites against Morocco. Both favourites have enough quality to win comfortably if they perform to their ceiling. Both underdogs have enough tactical intelligence to win if the favourites are slightly below theirs.
That is not a particularly bold prediction. But it is an accurate description of where we are, and accuracy is more useful than drama at this stage of the tournament.
What would a Japan or Morocco victory actually mean? In practical terms, a place in the quarter-finals and a chance to face whoever emerges from the other side of the bracket. In symbolic terms, something considerably larger: evidence that the structural advantages enjoyed by European and South American nations, the academy pipelines, the domestic league quality, the financial resources, can be overcome by tactical sophistication and collective organisation. Not permanently. Not systemically. But once, in a knockout game, at a World Cup. Which is how these things tend to start.
The World Cup section at FootyGazette will have full coverage of both ties as they unfold. For those wanting to watch every knockout game live, details on viewing options are available at our watch page. The summer 2026 storylines feature has broader context on the narratives running through this tournament, including the qualification picture for nations like Scotland, who remain in a precarious position heading into the final group-stage calculations.
Japan and Morocco have earned the right to dream. Whether the dream survives contact with Brazil and the Netherlands is a question that will be answered shortly. The answer will tell us something about where football actually is, as opposed to where we would like it to be.
FAQ
Have Japan ever beaten Brazil at a World Cup?
No. The two nations have not met in a competitive World Cup fixture prior to 2026. Japan’s previous landmark results at World Cups came against Germany and Spain at Qatar 2022, both achieved through disciplined defensive organisation and rapid counter-attacking transitions.
How far did Morocco go at the 2022 World Cup?
Morocco reached the semi-finals at Qatar 2022, defeating Spain and Portugal along the way. They became the first African nation to reach the last four of a World Cup, a result built on Walid Regragui’s defensive structure and the collective discipline of the squad rather than individual brilliance.
Why did Norway leave Haaland out against France?
Norway had already qualified from their group and chose to rotate heavily, making ten changes including resting Erling Haaland. The decision was framed as squad management ahead of the knockout rounds. France fielded a stronger side and won comfortably, raising questions about whether the rotation was too aggressive.
What formation has Japan used at the 2026 World Cup?
Japan have operated primarily in a 4-3-3 shape that compresses into a 4-5-1 defensive block when out of possession. The wide forwards carry significant pressing responsibilities, and the team’s transition play from deep positions has been a key attacking weapon throughout the group stage.
Could a non-European, non-South American team win the 2026 World Cup?
It has not happened since the tournament began in 1930. Since Argentina’s victory in 1978, every winner has come from western Europe or South America. Japan and Morocco represent the most credible challengers from outside those regions in this edition of the tournament, though both face significant obstacles in the knockout rounds.
